If you draw a daily chart of the GBP/USD pair and plot a 200 day exponential moving average, ie the EMA (200), you will see that this pair is now trading below this key indicator. So therefore you could argue that it's now technically in a downward trend, particularly as the Supertrend indicator is now red (indicating a bearish trend).
However the point I want to make is that it's worth paying attention to how the price reacts when it comes close to this indicator. You can already see that the price touched the EMA (200) on 30th September and 8th October. However despite briefly moving a few points above this indicator, the price quickly fell back downwards again, so this proved to be a major area of resistance.
So with the price starting to move upwards again in recent days, it's worth watching to see what happens if it does go on to test the EMA (200) indicator once more. The current price at the time of writing is 1.5980 and the EMA (200) currently stands at 1.6090, so we're not far off.
If the daily candle closes above this indicator this could indicate that a new upward trend is about to start, but if it falls back a third time, which I think is highly likely, then I think the GBP/USD is going to head sharply lower.
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