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Thursday, December 30, 2010

Using Moving Averages

One sweet way to use moving averages is to help you determine the trend.
The simplest way is to just plot a single moving average on the chart. When price action tends to stay above the moving average, it would signal that price is in a general uptrend.
If price action tends to stay below the moving average, then it would indicate that it is in a downtrend.
Trend spotting using moving average
The problem with this is that it's too simplistic.
Let's say that USD/JPY has been in a downtrend, but a news report comes out causing it surge higher.
Is there a change in trend?
You see that the price is now above the moving average. You think to yourself:
"Hmmm... It looks like this pair is about to shift direction. Time to buy this sucker!"
So you do just that. You buy a billion units cause you're confident that USD/JPY is going to rise.
Fakeout! Downtrend continues!
Bammm! You got faked out! As it turns out, traders just reacted to the news but the trend continued and price kept heading lower!What some traders do - and what we suggest you do as well - is that they plot a couple of moving averages on their charts instead of just one. This gives them a clearer signal of whether the pair is trending up or down depending on the order of the moving averages. Let us explain.
In an uptrend, the "faster" moving average should be above the "slower" moving average and for a downtrend, vice versa. For example, let's say we have two MAs: the 10-period MA and the 20-period MA. On your chart, it would look like this:

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